Longer term U.S. Treasury Bond yields remain well below their long term average. The current yield on the
U.S. 10 year Treasury is approximately 2%. Long term Treasury bonds were top performers last year as they earned well over double digit returns. The 10 year Treasury returned over 17% last year as rates dropped from over 3% to under 2%. We have covered in earlier posts reasons as to why rates are so low. In the quest for income, we are continuing to see investors stretch for yield by purchasing longer term bonds. If rates were to rise, these bonds would fall in price. Investors need to begin to evaluate their portfolio for interest rate risk. Those with short term memories only need to recall that four years ago, a one year CD yielded more than 5%.
For a buy and hold investor, purchasing a long term bond could be a significant mistake. If you purchase a 10 year Treasury today and hold it until maturity, you will earn about 2% annually. While inflation is currently below trend, let’s assume it averages 3.5% (the long term average is nearly 4%). This means that if you buy and hold a 10 year Treasury, each year you will be losing 1.5% in purchasing power. In 10 years your investment will buy less than it does today. Consider the following example: A $100,000 investment that compounds at 2% per year, will be worth $125,892 in 10 years. To keep up with inflation, that $100,000 needs to be worth $141,060 in 10 years! Use a higher inflation figure like college costs or healthcare costs and the difference becomes that much larger.
We are not making a call on the bond market or interest rates. Interest rate forecasting is very difficult. A history of 10 year US Treasury Bond rates is below. It is pretty clear from this that we are near a bottom in rates and they cannot go much lower. If history is cyclical and rates were to rise, what would happen to your portfolio? We are encouraging investors to evaluate their portfolios. Stress test your portfolio for what a rise in interest rates would do to the holdings. Analyze your holdings to make sure that you have asset classes that can preserve purchasing power (beat inflation).

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As the Director of Investments for Planning Solutions Group, Jon Giordani provides clients with innovative investment planning strategies. Prior to joining Planning Solutions Group, Jon worked in the institutional market place as a Vice President of Institutional Sales for Deutsche Bank and a research analyst for Croft-Leominster. Jon is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charter holder and holds NASD Series 7 and 63 registrations. Jon graduated from the Johns Hopkins University where he majored in Economics.






